Crisis Guide: Iran

I received an e-mail a few days ago from the Council on Foreign Relations about the pre-release of their multimedia feature, “Crisis Guide: Iran”. The work “traces Iran’s evolution, its ambitions as a regional power, and its controversial nuclear program. Drawing on the insights of more than twenty-five leading analysts, government officials, and journalists, as well as prominent Iranians such as Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi and dissident Akbar Ganji” The chapters include:

- a cinematic overview of  the challenges Iran poses to its neighbors and the world;

-  a detailed look at Iran’s nuclear program, including a map of its nuclear facilities, and a visual presentation of the nuclear fuel cycle;

-  interactive timelines tracing  Iran’s history from 550 BC to the present;

-  primers on the Iranian regime’s structure, the growing divisions between elite factions, prospects for the opposition movement, and how domestic policies and international sanctions affect the country’s oil-driven economy;

-  maps surveying Iran’s bilateral relations and various economic and social indicators in the region —such as trade flows, population growth, literacy rates, etc.

-  a discussion of policy options available for managing the risks posed by the Iranian regime.

In order to access it, go to: www.cfr.org/iranguide the password is “cfr”.  Official release date is to be October 3rd, 2011.

I personally enjoyed taking a sneak peak and look forward to its release date, I hope you enjoy it as well!

Israeli Embassy Raid in Cairo, Pointless Setback for Democracy

September 9th was to be a day of protests in Tahrir Square not seen since prior to the month of Ramadan. Known as “correcting the path” amongst organizers, it was to express frustration at the military’s handling of the Mubarak trials and such. Here is a translation of the demands from a website (http://www.elshaheeed.co.uk/):

Egyptians will protest on Friday, September 9th to ensure their revolution is on the right path.
- Permanent end of military trials of civilians.
- A clear timeline with exact dates of when the military council will     hand over power to an ELECTED CIVIL authority (The initially promised 6 months have now finished).
- Canceling the new law issued by military council that prohibits sit-ins and strikes.
- Change the new elections law that helps the same old corrupt businessmen win the elections.
- Ensure the Egyptian police focus on ending crime and criminality rather than attacking law abiding citizens.
- Implement the minimum pay for public sector workers and maximum salaries for senior officials.
- Implement Egyptian laws that will ensure the corrupt heads and symbols of Mubarak’s ruling national party, and who      have been proved to have rigged Egyptian elections for years, can no longer stand elections again.

Over thousands showed up to the protests, but attention was cut short when the Israeli embassy in Giza became the target of Egyptian demonstrators frusturation. Taking sledgehammers and whatever they could find, they hacked at the recently erected 3-meter cement walls and climbed over it, heading into the first floor of the Nile-side high-rise housing the embassy. Protesters made it far enough to grab embassy pamphlets and/or documents from the foyer and scatter them around. Someone even tore down the Israeli flag. While on the outside, cars were set ablaze and tear gas engulfed the area, as protesters clashed with police and then the military. Over 450 people are reported injured with several dead, 17 protesters have been arrested (Numbers are coming in and fluctuating).

A source residing by the Israeli embassy told me that the Saudi Arabian embassy was also being attacked, there is no confirmation about that yet.

Two aircrafts were sent to Cairo to evacuate members of the Embassy, the first for Ambassador Yitzhak Levanon and his 80 staff and families, the second was for the 6 guards who fended off protesters at the Embassy. They arrived “safe and sound” to Israel, according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.

American President Barack Obama expressed “great concern” over what happened on Friday and called on Egypt “to honor its international obligations to safeguard the security of the Israeli Embassy.”

A similar incident happened back on August 21st, after five Egyptian security officers were killed during an IDF mission which attempted to target militants in Egypt’s Sinai in retaliation of a bus attack in Eilat, Israel. This sparked protests in front of the embassy as well. The hightlight of it being when someone climbed to the 21st floor and tore down the Israeli flag, replacing it with an Egyptian one. The individual, an Egyptian carpenter, was instantly regarded as a hero and nicknamed “Flagman”. As a result of the incident, a 3-meter cement wall was put up as an effort to ward off future attacks on the embassy.

Egyptian-Israel relations for the past thirty years were never quite warm, given their history of wars, but it was ousted US-backed President Husni Mubarak who often kept things cool. As a consquence of last month’s incident in the Sinai, Egyptians have called to expel the Israel Ambassador after not apologizing in addition to a revision of the 1979 Camp David Accords. Sympathy to the Palestinian cause has also played a major role into the demonstrations.

The incident is a blow to Egyptian-Israeli relations, but not an entire loss, as the embassy still has Ambassador Levanon’s deputy as representative in Cairo. Israel has stayed calm throughout the incident, and it comes as no surprise given the recent deterioration of Israel and Turkey’s relations over the Gaza flotilla incident last year.

In all, the embassy incident was a setback for the “correcting the path” protesters, as it distracted the people from it and made the Israeli Embassy the focus instead. This was actually to the Military’s benefit, and there is no telling what role they played in all of this. There was no point in raiding the Israeli embassy, as it only proved to many that Egypt may not only be ready for elections, but for democracy as well.

Israel is in a complex position it has not faced in decades and it will be interesting to see how it reacts to all of this. With it’s two allies Turkey and Egypt turning away from them, Israel is going to have to keep a low profile and make some compromises. This is especially fascinating given the UN bid for a Palestinian state happening on Monday. Could it be this was a stunt to back Israel into a corner? We may never know.

Chris Jeon’s Motives: Harmless and/or Ignorant?

Jeon wearing a Clippers jersey with NTC Rebels (Photo: The National)

When the news of Chris Jeon broke out, I was somewhat appalled. I posted the article on my Facebook and received an array of reactions, including some from those who were friends with Jeon. Might I mention they were egging him on and calling him an American hero. Now if he’s considered to be an “American hero,” what are our troops who come home from Afghanistan or Iraq called? Might point exactly.

Frankly, I think what Jeon did was idiotic. Not only is he not familiar with Libyan culture, history, or the Arabic language — he didn’t go to help the NTC rebels — but to have a good time. Various articles have described him as an observer or fighting for the cause. Either way, he is a combatant fighting pro-Qaddafi forces as a member of the NTC rebel force. According to my research, what he is doing is not illegal but will cause a big inquiry on his behalf when he returns. Jeon’s friends say he is known for being adventurous and spontaneous, and that this comes as no surprise. Fine by me. But if he wants to engage in a war, I say join the marines or the army. If he wants to help people, join the Peace Corps or volunteer in Somalia or somewhere in the world with a natural disaster. Don’t make a moron of yourself, your school, and your country. This is the sort of behavior that paints us with a bad image and creates more enemies, it’s like we’re making a mockery of the Libyan Civil War. It’s no wonder why the rebels got annoyed with him, he can’t even communicate when they’re under attack by Pro-Qaddafi forces.

You know what disturbs me even more? He’ll come back home and do a bunch of press, then be offered a multi-million dollar book deal and be set for life. Why does this bother me? Because there are plenty of Americans putting their lives in harms way to help people across the globe, and when they do something good like help feed the victims of famine in the Horn of Africa and die doing it, we fail to even bring them up. These people’s work goes unknown and they die nameless in American society; that’s what upsets me about this story. Yes, he did not ask for this attention, but we are wrong for making it seem like it’s a good thing. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Eid Mubarak, I mean Eid Saeed!

"Eid Mubarak" in Arabic Calligraphy (Photo: Sania)

The Islamic month of fasting known as Ramadan ended last week and was replaced by Eid al-Fitr, a holiday that marks the end of it all. Eid al-Fitr is taken seriously in the Sunni Muslim World, it is almost equivalent to the Christian take on the Christmas holiday (Meaning very important). The celebrations extend over a few days, where new clothes are bought, people have long vacations, and many of the other typical things people do during a religious holiday.

I found myself saying “Eid Mubarak” and being corrected; It literally means blessed eid. Instead I was instructed to say “Eid Saeed,” which means happy eid. I was not making a mistake actually, it was the Egyptians making an attempt to be politically correct in every matter. Basically, since President Husni Mubarak’s last name is also part of a common greeting, they have replaced the common “Mubarak” with “Saeed”. Silly, but it seems to make a difference to them and leave them equally content.

Eid Mubarak = Blessed Eid
Eid Saeed = Happy Eid
To me = SAME

"Libya is Free" in Arabic (Photo: Me)

Exploring the streets of Cairo during eid was an interesting experience, given most of the people were out of town. Traffic was less which is a surprise since the capital is notorious for its traffic jams. Being from Los Angeles, traffic doesn’t phase me especially since I’m not the driver here. In Zamalek, one of the trendier hangouts, I found a carriage carried by a horse with Arabic music on blast and several passengers waving the Libyan NTC flag. The scene caught me off guard. As I strolled through Zamalek, I found graffiti on various walls saying, “Libya” and “Libya is Free” in Arabic (Political graffiti has become a novelty since the revolution). Either there are a lot of Libyans living in Egypt or people are passionate about the revolution taking place next door to their homeland.

Anyways, Eid Mubarak, I mean Eid Saeed!

Where on Earth is Qaddafi?

Rebels stomp on head from a statue of Muammar Qaddafi, symbolizing an Arab insult. (Photo: AP)

I’ve finally made it to the ‘Land of the Pharaohs,’ and I dare say everything seems pretty normal for a country that has only recently experienced a revolution. Life has gone on, other than a sporadic demonstration every Friday and the occasional ruckus because of the Mubarak trial. However, it is worth noting that people are a bit more on edge and theft is on the rise since January 25th.

Although typically debate amongst Egyptians is the future of the “New Egypt,” the trending topic right now is #Libya. Ever since the fall of Tripoli to the NTC rebels (National Transitional Council), Egyptians have been constantly talking about the Libyan peoples’ future. I actually ran into a Libyan expatriate and was able to converse about her homeland’s political situation. Fatimah* had just returned from a three-month visit to Libya where she was in the process of opening an NGO. Her own uncles had left the United States (Where they resided) to take up arms against Muammar Qaddafi’s tyrannical army. Fatimah said the New Libya would be a great one especially if Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the former Justice Minister under Qaddafi and now chairman of the NTC, was to take over permanently.

I, on the other hand, have my own theories. Libya worries me in the sense that the rebels are from various groups consisting of ordinary people, Al Qaeda, expatriates, mujaheddin and such. They are all fighting for the same cause now, but once its all over a power struggle may arise leading to a Civil War, similar to what happened in Somalia. Another thing worth mentioning is that Libya has a vital natural resource which has made the country well-off in the first place compared to its neighbors: oil. This is an important resource to the West as we all know, and it comes as no surprise that European oil companies have been flocking to Libya to make better deals with the rebels than what they already had under Qaddafi. I worry for Libya’s future because of its wealth and lack of real direction, I fear it may turn into another Iraq/Somalia type situation.

One last thing to mention is the whereabouts of Colonel Qaddafi. It has been brought to my attention that he may be considering self-exiling himself to Zimbabwe, another stronghold of African Dictatorship under Robert Mugabe, also known as ‘Crazy Bob’. Both dictators have participated in dirty dealings in the past. If Qaddafi were to head to the South of Africa, he’d be joining former Ethiopian President, Mengistu Haile Mariam. I’m surprised the Saudis have not extended a hand, as they often have had a long history of granting asylum to dictators such as Idi Amin of Uganda, and more recently Ben Ali of Tunsia.

*Name changed for privacy.

The Countdown Begins

Camel walks in front of the Pyramids of Giza (Photo: The Travel Peach)

After much thought, I decided to re-open my potential for blogging. Less than two weeks away, I’ll be embarking for my big move to the ‘Land of the Pharaohs,’ Egypt. I’ll be there for two years, in the most sporadic times of Egypt’s history since the overthrow of the Egyptian Monarchy in 1952.

The blogging sphere has grown to an even more popular forum since I first started posting in the summer of 2008. In my new posts, I will reflect my own thoughts and ideas on what’s happening in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa), as well as what I hear and see on the ground.

I hope you enjoy reading over the next couple of years!